These issues could worsen if Donald Trump’s new administration in the United States implements tariffs on products imported from Asia and Europe.
According to international experts interviewed by Broadcast (the real-time news system of the Grupo Estado), this scenario is plausible, as they do not foresee an escalation of military conflicts in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran.
Efforts by OPEC members to voluntarily cut oil production this year have led to stock reductions and upward pressure on prices, which HSBC estimates will result in a daily supply deficit of 310,000 barrels compared to global demand in 2024.
However, this situation is expected to reverse in 2025, with a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels of supply over demand, as supply and demand are projected to reach 104.4 million and 103.9 million barrels per day, respectively. “The average price of a barrel of Brent crude is expected to drop from $79 in 2024 to $70 next year,” said Kim Fustier, head of European oil and gas research at HSBC.
